‘Opening the black box’ in Australian sport: Understanding athlete attrition in the high-performance pathway system, a complex systems approach

  • Sara Guevara

    Student thesis: Doctoral Thesis

    Abstract

    High-performance sport (HPS) pathway programs aim to identify and develop talented athletes physically, mentally and technically, guiding them towards elite-level success. However, athlete attrition and early retirement from HPS remains high. Existing athlete attrition literature has primarily focused on exploring micro-system level (intrapersonal or interpersonal) factors. In contrast, broader environmental and societal influences at the meso-and macro-system levels remain underexplored and require further investigation to better understand and address dropout within HPS pathways.
    The aim of this thesis is to develop a deeper understanding of the factors influencing athlete attrition within the HPS pathway system. HPS systems are inherently complex, characterised by their multidimensional, context-specific, and highly variable nature. To account for this complexity, a complex systems approach is used to examine how various factors interact and influence one another over time, across different levels of the system. This approach is operationalised through a socioecological framework, which provides a structured way to examine multiple levels of influence and the interrelationships between direct and indirect environmental factors that shape behaviours and decision-making within complex systems.
    This thesis comprises four mixed methods studies and one concept paper, which collectively contribute to the development of a new Socioecological Organisational Adaptability and Resilience (SOAR) model generated through the findings and frameworks established throughout the research. The studies are not presented in a strictly sequential manner; instead, the thesis applies an inductive lens and adopts a complex systems approach, adapted from a systems ergonomic methodology. Each study aligns with a step in the systems ergonomics process.
    The findings from this thesis significantly advance understanding of athlete attrition by offering deeper insight into the influences at the macro-system level and highlighting the importance of addressing systemic contributions to athlete attrition.
    Date of Award2025
    Original languageEnglish
    SupervisorGordon WADDINGTON (Supervisor) & Lain DARE (Supervisor)

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